History. No count from the seven: each was about the first handover of papers, and no government set its own date.
Hunch. On 5 November the senior civil servant who runs the Cabinet Office wrote that she expects the papers to be ready before MPs break for Christmas.
The papers market resolves YES if the Cabinet Office lays at least some new papers on the February 2026 demand before the Commons with a laying date no later than 17 December 2026, as shown on its GOV.UK page or in the Commons Votes and Proceedings. Papers laid or published in the Christmas break from 18 December count as NO, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the official pages are silent.
We looked for cases where the Commons passed a demand from MPs outside the government for government papers, and checked the first papers that came back. We found seven such demands from 2017 to 2026. Four came from 2017 to 2019 and were about Brexit, and only the 2026 demand ran alongside a police investigation.