The Budget of 28 October 2026 keeps the £2m line, the £2,500 to £7,500 charges and the April 2028 start, but adds a 100% premium on homes left empty for 12 months or more, so some owners pay more than set in 2025, the GOV.UK factsheet shows.
History. 3 of 4: kept in 2012, 2016 and 2017; the Budget of 26 November 2025 broke two promises, counted once.
Hunch. BBC reported on 12 October that John Healey has ruled out lowering the mansion tax line to £1.5m.
The mansion tax market resolves on the Budget 2026 documents on GOV.UK on 28 October: YES if the surcharge keeps the £2m line, charges no more than set in the 2025 Budget and starts no earlier than April 2028, and NO if any of these is made tougher. BBC News and The Guardian reports of the day settle it if the GOV.UK pages do not open.
We looked for cases where a UK chancellor dropped a planned tax rise between Budgets, through the press, a letter or a statement. We found five such promises since 2012, and two of them were tested by the same Budget, in November 2025.