Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market31 Jul 2026

Does the 2026 Mercury Prize go to an artist shortlisted between 2021 and 2025?

BinaryResolves 22 Oct 2026
History50%
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Raye won the 2026 Mercury Prize on 22 October 2026 for This Music May Contain Hope, and the prize's previous shortlists page lists Raye on the 2023 shortlist for My 21st Century Blues, as BBC News confirms the win.

Resolved 22 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the winner announced at the ceremony on 22 October 2026 and published on mercuryprize.com that evening; YES if that artist appears on the 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or 2025 shortlist on the prize's previous shortlists page. For a collaborative or collective credit, the named act on the shortlist is what is compared. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Guardian reports of the winner settle it.

The pattern behind it

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Four of the last eight Mercury winners had been shortlisted in the five years before they won: Wolf Alice (2015, won 2018), Michael Kiwanuka (2016, won 2020), Little Simz (2019, won 2022) and Sam Fender (2022, won 2025). The other four, Dave, Arlo Parks, Ezra Collective and English Teacher, were first-time nominees, three of them with debut albums. Four of this year's twelve meet the same test, so the record says returning nominees are neither favoured nor punished; it also says the prize does not reward persistence on its own.

Four of the last eight winners had been on the list before. We checked each winner from 2018 to 2025 in the BBC's report of the ceremony, and asked whether the artist had been shortlisted in the five years before. Over the whole history of the prize, the BBC notes that twenty of its 34 winners to 2025 won with a first album.