Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market22 Oct 2026

Will Brussels or the UK's CMA ask Meta to pause its new terms?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
Hunch16%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 30 October 2026 the CMA opened a formal Competition Act investigation into Meta's commercial terms, naming the right to collect content from businesses' websites, as its GOV.UK press release says and The Times reports.

Resolved 30 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. On 20 October Britain's CMA asked Meta to explain the changes and set up a meeting, with no request to pause them.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if by the end of 30 October 2026, London time, the European Commission or the CMA officially asks Meta to delay or suspend the new terms, or opens a formal case that names the new terms or website crawling. Requests for explanation, meetings, general words about the law or a general CMA review of Meta's market position are NO, with the Commission press corner and CMA pages on GOV.UK first and The Guardian and BBC News as backups.

The pattern behind it

8 of 10
In eight of ten fights over new terms since 2009, the platform changed the disputed text or its plan after public protest. Six were full climbdowns, and in two the platform changed nothing.

We looked for cases where a platform changed its terms to gain rights over its users’ content, and users protested in public. We found ten such fights since 2009. Three involved Facebook, Instagram or Meta, and none was about websites outside the platform.