On its 28 October 2026 results call Microsoft said October to December capital spending will be over $50bn, above the $45.2bn it spent in July to September, according to Microsoft's own call transcript, with Reuters and BBC News reporting the results.
History. In seven of nine reports after a market scare since 2024, Microsoft forecast more spending for the next quarter. In January 2025 it forecast a level, and in January 2026 a dip.
Hunch. Amy Hood's own estimate of about $175bn for 2026 leaves about $102bn for July to December, little room for a rise after a quarter over $50bn.
Resolves YES if on 28 October Microsoft says when it presents results or in its forecast slides that spending on buildings and equipment for October to December will be higher than for July to September, or gives a forecast whose lowest figure is above the July to September amount, while a forecast of over a figure that is not above it, a level or lower forecast, or no forecast for the quarter is NO, with the Guardian and BBC News as backups. Amy Hood's estimate of about $175bn for 2026 leaves about $102bn for July to December, so if July to September spending tops about $51bn, a YES in the spending market, a higher forecast here needs Microsoft to raise that estimate.
We looked for cases where tech shares fell on fears that the AI boom would not pay off, before Microsoft reported its quarterly results. We found nine such reports since April 2024. All nine come from one company, with the same finance chief, Amy Hood.