Microsoft's 28 October 2026 results call put July to September capital expenditures including $7.4bn of finance leases at $45.2bn, below $50bn, and Reuters reported the same $45.2bn figure.
Hunch. Amy Hood forecast over $50bn in July, and Microsoft beat both of its past 'over' forecasts, by 16% and 2.5%.
The spending market resolves on Microsoft's results for July to September 2026, due on 28 October: YES if capital expenditures including finance leases, as Microsoft reports them, are above $50bn, and NO if they are $50bn or less, with the amount Hood names when presenting results used if that line is no longer given and the Guardian and BBC News as backups. Hood's forecast already counts the move of some data centre leases out of this figure, which lowers it without any change to building plans.
We looked for cases where tech shares fell on fears that the AI boom would not pay off, before Microsoft reported its quarterly results. We found nine such reports since April 2024. All nine come from one company, with the same finance chief, Amy Hood.