Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Oct 2026

Will Alan Milburn release another youth jobs idea before the Budget?

BinaryResolves 27 Oct 2026
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 18 October 2026 Alan Milburn told The Guardian that ministers should move money from benefits into employment support for young people, a recommendation not in his earlier releases, and BBC News reported it on 19 October.

Resolved 18 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count: none of the four delayed reports came out in parts. Signal points are counted from 50.

Hunch. Milburn released three parts of his work in the 15 days to 10 October.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if from 11 to 27 October 2026 Alan Milburn or his review publicly sets out a new recommendation not in the releases of 26 September, 1 October and 10 October, on GOV.UK or as reported by The Guardian or BBC News. The Independent and the Financial Times are the backup.

The pattern behind it

1 of 4
One of four reports the UK government delayed came out within about 50 days of its first date. The other three took four months or more.

We looked for cases where the UK government delayed a report that was ready or due on a set date. We found four such reports since 2019. All four came out in the end. Only one came out within two months of its first date, a review that was two days late.