History. 2 of 4 cases took the named step within 94 days of the threat: Argentina in 2015 on day 8 and Malaysia on day 63. Venezuela took 120 days; Vietnam never acted.
Hunch. Argentina has filed at this tribunal before, against Ghana in 2012, and Milei named both the tribunal and a deadline, as Malaysia did before it filed (ITLOS, case 20; BBC News, 29 Sep 2026).
Resolves on the list of cases and press releases of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, checked on 1 January 2027: YES if Argentina has filed a request for provisional measures against the United Kingdom on or before 31 December 2026. A statement that Argentina will file, or the start of arbitration without a request to the tribunal, resolves NO. BBC News and Al Jazeera are the backup.
We looked for cases where a country claimed land or sea that another country controls, that country allowed business there, and the claimant publicly threatened a named step to stop it, a step with no power to force the other side. Steps backed by force were left out. We found four, from 2003 to 2024. The work did not stop because of the threat in any of them. Three of the four claimants did take the step they named, but only one did it within a month.