History. 1 of 4 cases: in 2015 an Argentine judge ordered Falklands oil firms to stop and their assets seized, 79 days after the warning. The order was ignored.
Hunch. Argentina said on 7 September it would file criminal charges against Navitas and its directors, the same route that led to a judge's order 79 days after the warning in 2015 (BBC News, 8 Sep 2026).
Resolves on reports by BBC News, Al Jazeera, The Guardian or Reuters, checked on 1 January 2027: YES if an Argentine court has ordered Navitas Petroleum, Rockhopper Exploration or another company in the Sea Lion project to stop work, or has ordered its assets seized or frozen, with the order dated on or before 31 December 2026. Opening a case, a summons or criminal charges without such an order resolves NO.
We looked for cases where a country claimed land or sea that another country controls, that country allowed business there, and the claimant publicly threatened a named step to stop it, a step with no power to force the other side. Steps backed by force were left out. We found four, from 2003 to 2024. The work did not stop because of the threat in any of them. Three of the four claimants did take the step they named, but only one did it within a month.