Peggy Flanagan won Minnesota's Senate race of 3 November 2026 with the most votes, 1,519,713 (53.73%) to Michele Tafoya's 1,231,405 (43.54%) with about 99% counted, called by the Associated Press (AP data shown by The Guardian), and The Guardian and The Independent report her win; the state results site blocks us with a bot check and the BBC state page does not show the race.
Hunch. The Minnesota Star Tribune poll in early October had Flanagan only four points ahead, closer than the smallest winning margin in the past races.
The Flanagan market resolves YES if the Minnesota Secretary of State results for US Senator in the general election of 3 November 2026 show Peggy Flanagan with the most votes, and NO if Michele Tafoya or any other candidate has the most. If no winner is named by the end of 4 November, the State Canvassing Board report of 19 November decides, and Guardian and BBC News reports decide together if the state page does not open.
We looked for cases where a party that did not hold the presidency defended an open US Senate seat in a midterm, the election halfway through a president’s term, in a state where its rivals had not won any statewide vote for at least eight years. We found five such races from 2010 to 2022, in the official US Congress election statistics.