Hunch. The New York Times and Siena poll of 28 October puts Flanagan exactly 14 points ahead, and the other October polls show a smaller lead.
The 14-point market resolves YES if the State Canvassing Board report of 19 November 2026 shows Flanagan winning with a share at least 14.0 points above the second candidate, counted from all votes, and NO if the gap is smaller or she does not win. If the meeting moves, the day of the report counts, and Guardian and BBC News reports decide together if the state page does not open.
We looked for cases where a party that did not hold the presidency defended an open US Senate seat in a midterm, the election halfway through a president’s term, in a state where its rivals had not won any statewide vote for at least eight years. We found five such races from 2010 to 2022, in the official US Congress election statistics.