No Guardian or BBC News report from 28 October to 3 November 2026 says Michele Tafoya appeared at a Trump event in Minnesota; Trump's last rallies were in Florida on 30 October and in Iowa and Kansas on 1 November.
Hunch. At the only Senate debate in October, Tafoya would not say if she would go to a Trump rally in Minnesota, and her latest ad says she will stand up to him.
The Trump event market resolves YES if Guardian or BBC News report by the end of 3 November 2026 that Tafoya appeared in person at a Trump rally or other public Trump event in Minnesota held from 28 October, and NO if there is no such report. A joint appearance outside Minnesota or by video does not count.
We looked for cases where a party that did not hold the presidency defended an open US Senate seat in a midterm, the election halfway through a president’s term, in a state where its rivals had not won any statewide vote for at least eight years. We found five such races from 2010 to 2022, in the official US Congress election statistics.