Hunch. In October 2025 Russia did not block a similar US text, and the Council renewed the mission for a year with 11 votes.
The mandate market counts only if the Security Council passes no resolution on the mission by the end of 2 November 2026, New York time, and is void otherwise. It resolves YES if by 31 December 2026 the Council passes a resolution that lets MINURSO keep working, even a short extension or a new UN mission in the territory, as shown in the UN list of 2026 Council meetings, and NO if no such resolution comes or the only one is about the mission leaving or closing, with UN press releases, Reuters and Al Jazeera as the backup.
We looked for cases where one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council vetoed the renewal of a UN mission or expert panel that most members backed. We found nine such vetoes since 1999. Russia cast seven of them. Three were missions on the ground. The other six were UN expert panels or similar bodies.