Hunch. On 30 October the US said any cut to MINURSO should be orderly and stable, which leaves room for a Council resolution on how the mission leaves.
The any-resolution market counts only on the same condition and is void otherwise. It resolves YES if by 31 December 2026 the Council passes any resolution that names MINURSO in its decisions, including one on an orderly exit or on closing the mission, and NO if none comes; statements by the Council president or to the press do not count.
We looked for cases where one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council vetoed the renewal of a UN mission or expert panel that most members backed. We found nine such vetoes since 1999. Russia cast seven of them. Three were missions on the ground. The other six were UN expert panels or similar bodies.