Hunch. In the week before 26 October the Cook Political Report moved this race from solid Republican to likely Republican, as polls show Scott Colom closing the gap.
Resolves YES if Cindy Hyde-Smith gets more votes than Scott Colom and Ty Pinkins in the US Senate election in Mississippi on 3 November 2026, as shown by the Mississippi Secretary of State and confirmed by Reuters or The New York Times; more votes for Colom or Pinkins is NO, and a tie for the most votes is void. A possible runoff does not change this market, and if no one is named by the end of 4 November, the county results sent to the Secretary of State by 13 November decide.
We looked for cases where a sitting US senator ran again for the same seat in a state where the other party had not won a Senate race for more than 40 years. We found four such races from 2014 to 2024, in Mississippi, Maryland and Kansas. Each time the result was clear on election night, with no second vote.