Hunch. Three names are on the 3 November ballot, so Cindy Hyde-Smith can lead and still fall short of half, as she did in the first round of the 2018 special election.
Resolves YES if, by the certified result, Cindy Hyde-Smith has more than 50% of all votes cast for candidates in the US Senate election in Mississippi on 3 November 2026, and NO if she has 50% or less. The Mississippi Secretary of State decides, and if the certified result is not shown by 13 November, Reuters and The New York Times reports of the result decide.
We looked for cases where a sitting US senator ran again for the same seat in a state where the other party had not won a Senate race for more than 40 years. We found four such races from 2014 to 2024, in Mississippi, Maryland and Kansas. Each time the result was clear on election night, with no second vote.