Will MSCI move Indonesia out of Emerging Markets by 30 June 2027?

BinaryResolves 30 Jun 2027

History44%

Hunch48%

Your forecast

Resolves 30 Jun 2027

Why these numbers

Hunch. MSCI launched the consultation on 15 October, before the November review it had named in June as the checkpoint.

How this resolves

The June market resolves on MSCI's press releases at msci.com: YES if by 30 June 2027 MSCI announces a decision to move the MSCI Indonesia Indexes from Emerging Markets to a lower status, Standalone or Frontier, even if the move takes effect later, and NO if it keeps Indonesia in Emerging Markets or has not decided by then. A longer consultation or a later decision date counts as NO, and Reuters and The Guardian settle it if MSCI's pages cannot be opened.

The pattern behind it

4 of 9

Four of nine times MSCI said in writing it planned to move a country's market to a lower group, it did so by the decision date it first set. Twice it moved the market down later, and three times it kept it where it was. Editorial scoring note: Count nine decision groups across ten displayed country rows, with four on-time downgrades. Greece and Morocco share the 2013 decision, counted once. Morocco is not a separate failure. The early-decision outcome remains a separate 2/9 statistic.

We looked for cases where MSCI said in writing that it planned to move a country's stock market to a lower group, and later announced a decision. We found ten such reviews since 2008. Greece and Morocco were moved in the same decision in 2013, so they count once, which leaves nine. (MSCI; MSCI)

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Will MSCI move Indonesia out of Emerging Markets by 30 June 2027?

The pattern behind it

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