Will MSCI decide by 30 Nov to drop Indonesia from Emerging Markets?

BinaryResolves 30 Nov 2026

History22%

Hunch22%

Your forecast

Resolves 30 Nov 2026

Why these numbers

Hunch. MSCI has kept its freeze on Indonesian stocks in place "until further notice" while the consultation runs.

How this resolves

The November market resolves YES if by the end of 30 November 2026, in its November index review or a separate notice, MSCI announces a decision to move the MSCI Indonesia Indexes to Standalone or Frontier status, even if the move takes effect later. An interim update on investors' views or a longer consultation is NO, and Reuters and The Guardian are the backups.

The pattern behind it

4 of 9

Four of nine times MSCI said in writing it planned to move a country's market to a lower group, it did so by the decision date it first set. Twice it moved the market down later, and three times it kept it where it was. Editorial scoring note: Count nine decision groups across ten displayed country rows, with four on-time downgrades. Greece and Morocco share the 2013 decision, counted once. Morocco is not a separate failure. The early-decision outcome remains a separate 2/9 statistic.

We looked for cases where MSCI said in writing that it planned to move a country's stock market to a lower group, and later announced a decision. We found ten such reviews since 2008. Greece and Morocco were moved in the same decision in 2013, so they count once, which leaves nine. (MSCI; MSCI)

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Will MSCI decide by 30 Nov to drop Indonesia from Emerging Markets?

The pattern behind it

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