Hunch. Nationwide's own figures show prices flat in October after a fall in September, and November prices usually come in weaker before Nationwide takes out the usual changes for the time of year, so even a small dip would turn the yearly figure negative.
The no-yearly-fall market resolves on Nationwide's house price report for November, expected on 1 December and counted if out by 4 December 2026, and is void if the report is not out by then: YES if the yearly change it prints for November is 0.0% or higher, including -0.0%, and NO if it is -0.1% or lower. The figure counts as printed on the day, later changes do not count, and BBC or Guardian reports of the same figure confirm it.
We looked for cases where yearly growth in Nationwide's UK house price index fell two months in a row and landed between zero and 1%. Nationwide's monthly figures start in 1991. We found seven such months, from 2010 to 2025, and checked whether the next month showed prices lower than a year before.