Ankara declaration (nato.int, 8 Jul 2026) pledges €70bn in 2026 military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine; endorsed by all 32 allies.
The declaration market resolves YES if the official summit declaration published on nato.int by 9 July contains a 2026 Ukraine military assistance commitment of €70bn (or explicitly higher). It resolves NO if the figure is cut, removed, or no declaration is endorsed. nato.int official summit documents; secondary confirmation from Reuters and AP wire reports.
We looked at NATO summit declarations since 2016, where the allies agreed the text before their leaders met, and checked whether the leaders then approved it as written. We found nine. Leaders approved all nine, even in years with open rows, such as 2018, when Donald Trump forced an emergency session, and 2019. Four are shown below.