Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Sep 2026

Does the Commons Transport Committee question Nats by 20 November?

BinaryResolves 20 Nov 2026
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 20 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. MPs return on 12 October with six sitting weeks before the date, and calling witnesses costs a committee far less than opening a formal inquiry, so timing is the obstacle rather than appetite.

How this resolves

The committee market resolves on the Parliament committees API for committee 153, which lists oral evidence sessions and inquiries. It resolves YES if a session with a Nats witness is held or formally announced by 20 November 2026, or an inquiry naming air traffic control is opened; a letter to Nats without a session resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

6 of 8
In six of eight comparable UK breakdowns since 2019, a department or a regulator announced a new or widened review within 31 days. The two misses were Nats in July 2025 and Barclays in January 2025.

We looked for big service failures at UK companies that run licensed critical services, from power to air traffic, where the public or the industry demanded action once the failure was over. We checked whether a government department or a regulator ordered a new or wider review within 31 days. We found eight since 2019. Three are at Nats itself, and the same two bodies, the Department for Transport and the CAA, decided all three. The closest cases come first.