Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will NHS consultants in England go on strike on 25 November?

BinaryResolves 25 Nov 2026
History86%
Hunch74%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 25 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. Stand-in base by actor: the seven cases are resident and junior doctors and nurses in England with the same decider (the UK government, Department of Health); no consultants strike is in the base. In the six cases with a known announcement date the first day came 15 to 22 days after it; now it is 30 days.

Hunch. In June the government stopped a resident doctors' strike two days before it began with a last-minute offer, and this time the BMA has given it four weeks.

How this resolves

The strike market resolves on the BMA news page: YES if the consultants' strike in England begins at 06:59 GMT on 25 November 2026 as announced, and NO if the BMA cancels it, suspends it or moves it to another date before then. BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the BMA page is silent.

The pattern behind it

6 of 7
Six of seven times a health workers' union in England set winter strike dates months after its vote and after talks without a deal, the strike began on the first day. Nurses called one off in 2023 when pay talks opened.

We looked for cases where a union of health workers in England set dates for a strike between November and March, at least two months after its strike vote and after talks with the government that brought no deal. We found seven such strikes from 2016 to 2025, five by doctors and two by nurses. Six began on the first day. None of them was a strike by consultants.