Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market16 Oct 2026

Will 18 to 20 year olds get a smaller pay rise than adults in April?

BinaryResolves 28 Oct 2026
History33%
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The rates announced on GOV.UK on 28 October 2026 raise the 18 to 20 rate by 42p from £10.85 to £11.27 (3.87%) and the 21 and over rate by 50p from £12.71 to £13.21 (3.93%), so the young workers' rise is smaller; The Guardian reports the same rates.

Resolved 28 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Ministers told the commission in March to put young people's jobs first, but the same letter keeps the plan to end the lower rate for young workers.

How this resolves

The young workers market resolves on the GOV.UK table of minimum wage rates announced by the end of 28 October 2026: YES if the rise for 18 to 20 year olds, from £10.85, is a smaller percentage than the rise for workers aged 21 and over, from £12.71, and NO if it is larger. It is void if the two rises are equal to two decimal places or no rates are announced by then, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if GOV.UK cannot be read.

The pattern behind it

6 of 6
Six of six times since 2020, the government took every minimum pay rate the Low Pay Commission advised, and it changed none of them.

We looked for cases where the government set new minimum pay rates after advice from the Low Pay Commission, while the adult rate aimed at two thirds of the middle hourly wage. We found six such decisions, for April 2021 to April 2026. Each time ministers took every rate the commission advised. They announced them on the day of the autumn Budget or statement, or one or two days before.