Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market09 Oct 2026

Will a woman be among the winners of the 2026 economics prize?

BinaryResolves 12 Oct 2026
History20%
Hunch16%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Nobel Prize press release of 12 Oct 2026 names two winners, Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford, both men, as the Guardian also reported the same day.

Resolved 12 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 10: Esther Duflo in 2019 and Claudia Goldin in 2023.

Hunch. Since the prize began in 1969 only three women have won it: Elinor Ostrom in 2009, Esther Duflo in 2019 and Claudia Goldin in 2023.

How this resolves

The woman market resolves on the same press release and the winners' pages: YES if at least one winner is a woman, and NO if none is. BBC News and The Guardian reports settle it if the Nobel site is down.

The pattern behind it

9 of 10
Nine of ten years every winner worked at a US university or institute. In 2025 one of three worked in France and Britain.

We looked for cases where the Academy named the economics winners a few days after the physics and chemistry prizes, as it does this year. We took the last ten such years, 2016 to 2025. Each year the economics prize came five days after chemistry.