On 9 October 2026 the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to Navi Pillay alone, not to Donald Trump, according to nobelprize.org, BBC News and The Guardian.
History. 1 of 6. Liu Xiaobo won in 2010. The side that pressed lost in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2025.
Hunch. The acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo wrote on 28 September that Trump will not win and pointed to the US war with Iran (The Guardian, 28 Sep 2026).
The Trump market resolves on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's announcement at nobelprize.org at 11:00 Oslo time on 9 October 2026: YES if Donald Trump is named as the laureate or one of the laureates. If the page is slow, the BBC News and Guardian reports of the announcement settle it.
We looked for cases where someone openly pressed the Nobel committee for the peace prize before it decided, beyond a normal nomination: a leader, a government or an organised public campaign. We found six such years since 2010. The side that pressed won once, in 2010, when the push came from supporters of a jailed writer. In the four years when a sitting leader did the pressing, the prize never went to the person he backed. The same committee decided all six.