Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Oct 2026

Will Croatia hand Volodymyr Zhuravlyov to Germany by 10 Nov?

BinaryResolves 10 Nov 2026
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 10 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count: none of the earlier trials involved a handover from another country.

Hunch. His lawyers are appealing the Croatian ruling, and no date for a decision on the appeal has been made public.

How this resolves

The handover market resolves on the German federal prosecutor’s press releases: YES if by 10 November 2026 Volodymyr Zhuravlyov has been handed to Germany, and NO if he is still in Croatia or elsewhere. BBC and Al Jazeera are the backup.

The pattern behind it

1 of 4
One of four trials reached a verdict within 135 days of the first day, in Düsseldorf after 98 days. Two took 154 and 163 days, and one has run 106 days without a verdict.

We looked for cases where a state security panel of a German higher regional court tried a foreign national for sabotage on behalf of another state. We found four such trials since 2023, each in a different city. In two of them the accused were also German citizens.