Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market22 Oct 2026

Will North Korea switch on its border loudspeakers by 31 October?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
History67%
Hunch75%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

North Korea did not switch on its border loudspeakers in October 2026: South Korea's military said on 1 November it had confirmed no broadcasts, after rejecting residents' reports of a test on 29 October, and no Reuters, BBC, Guardian or Al Jazeera report says sound was sent.

Resolved 31 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. In four of six statements since 2010 by a Korean government that it would restart a stopped step at the border, the step began within five days. Twice it did not.

Hunch. Kim Yo-jong named the timing twice in two days, and on 22 October said the loudspeakers would be ready within days.

How this resolves

The loudspeaker market resolves YES if by the end of 31 October 2026, Seoul time, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff or defence ministry, or two of Reuters, BBC, The Guardian and Al Jazeera, report that North Korea's border loudspeakers are sending sound to the South, with the start on or before 31 October. Loudspeakers that are put up or repaired but stay silent count as NO.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
In four of six statements since 2010 by a Korean government that it would restart a stopped step at the border, the step began within five days. Twice it did not begin.

We looked for cases where one of the two Korean governments said in public that it would restart a hostile step on the border that both sides had stopped before. We found six such statements since 2010, all on this border. Four times the step began, each time within five days of the statement.