Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market22 Oct 2026

Will South Korea restart its own border loudspeakers by 30 November?

BinaryResolves 30 Nov 2026
History50%
Hunch27%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 30 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. In three of six statements since 2010, the other Korean government answered with its own loudspeaker broadcasts. Each time it was North Korea that answered.

Hunch. South Korea's government took its loudspeakers down last year and on 23 October offered the North military talks instead.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if by the end of 30 November 2026, Seoul time, South Korea's government or military says, or two of Reuters, BBC and The Guardian report, that the South has restarted news or music broadcasts to the North from loudspeakers on the border. Spoken warnings to North Korean soldiers who cross the line, radio and leaflets do not count.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
In four of six statements since 2010 by a Korean government that it would restart a stopped step at the border, the step began within five days. Twice it did not begin.

We looked for cases where one of the two Korean governments said in public that it would restart a hostile step on the border that both sides had stopped before. We found six such statements since 2010, all on this border. Four times the step began, each time within five days of the statement.