Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Oct 2026

Will the 22 October tram strike be called off over a new pay offer?

BinaryResolves 22 Oct 2026
History30%
Hunch24%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

NET said on 21 October 2026 that the GMB had cancelled the 22 October strike because members approved a revised offer of a 3.7% rise and 7% for the lowest paid, as BBC Nottingham and the Nottingham Post also reported.

Resolved 21 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. On 9 October the operator had no new offer above 3.3%, and its boss pointed only to Monday's talks.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if before 22 October 2026 the GMB called off or paused the 22 October strike and the reason given was a new NET offer or an accepted deal, and NO if the strike began or was called off only for talks. NET news, BBC Nottingham and Nottingham Post settle it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 10
Five of ten times the first strike day on a UK tram network went ahead, and five times it was called off before it began.

We looked for cases where a union set strike dates on a UK tram or light rail network after workers turned down a pay offer. We found ten such rounds since 2019, on four networks. The first strike day went ahead five times. The other five times it was called off before it began, usually one or two days before.