Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market19 Oct 2026

Will New South Wales MPs pass the Mount Pleasant mine law by 26 Nov?

BinaryResolves 26 Nov 2026
History4 of 4
Hunch79%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 26 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. In four of four such laws since 1982, parliament passed the law. Where the start is known, the last vote came 4, 12 and 16 days after the bill was brought in.

Hunch. By 22 October the bill was not yet in parliament, and both chambers have only six set sitting days before 26 November.

How this resolves

The coal mine law market resolves on the Parliament of New South Wales record of the bill and the Hansard of both chambers: YES if by the end of 26 November 2026, Sydney time, both chambers have passed a bill that lets the Mount Pleasant mine dig more than its current 12.5 million tonnes a year, with or without changes, and any changes made by the upper chamber are agreed by the lower one. It is NO if either chamber has not passed it by then or rejects it, and The Guardian and Reuters settle it if the parliament pages cannot be read.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
In four of four laws since 1982 that gave back a permit a court had cancelled for one project, parliament passed the law. Where the start is known, it took 4 to 16 days from the bill coming in.

We looked for cases where a court in Australia or New Zealand cancelled the permit for one named project, and the government then asked parliament for a law to give that permit back. We found four such laws since 1982: in New Zealand, twice in New South Wales and in the Northern Territory. Parliament passed all four.