Hunch. As in late 2024 and early 2025, this sell-off comes from doubts that AI spending will pay off, and both of those times Nvidia was lower five trading days after its results.
The five-day market resolves on Nasdaq official closing prices for Nvidia: YES if the close on Tuesday 24 November 2026 is strictly below the close on Tuesday 17 November, and NO if it is equal or higher. If Nvidia moves its results from 17 November the market is void, and Guardian or AP market reports settle it if Nasdaq's history page is not available.
We looked for cases where the Nasdaq fell 2.5% or more in one day and Nvidia, the most valuable US chipmaker, published its results within the next 30 days. Each time Nvidia had beaten its own sales forecast for the two quarters before. We found nine such reports from 2020 to 2025. For each we compared the lowest price that month with the close just before the month began.