Hunch. Nvidia shares closed lower the day after four of its last five results, most recently on 21 May 2026.
The next-day market resolves on Nasdaq official closing prices for Nvidia: YES if the close on Wednesday 18 November 2026 is strictly below the close on 17 November, and NO if it is equal or higher. If Nvidia moves its results the market is void, and Guardian or AP market reports are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Nasdaq fell 2.5% or more in one day and Nvidia, the most valuable US chipmaker, published its results within the next 30 days. Each time Nvidia had beaten its own sales forecast for the two quarters before. We found nine such reports from 2020 to 2025. For each we compared the lowest price that month with the close just before the month began.