Hunch. In the 20 trading days to 30 October, Nvidia's daily price swings were calmer than before any of the nine earlier reports that followed a sell-off.
The big-move market resolves on the same Nasdaq closing prices: YES if the close on 18 November 2026 is more than 5.00% above or below the close on 17 November, and NO if the change is 5.00% or less. If Nvidia moves its results the market is void, and Guardian or AP market reports are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Nasdaq fell 2.5% or more in one day and Nvidia, the most valuable US chipmaker, published its results within the next 30 days. Each time Nvidia had beaten its own sales forecast for the two quarters before. We found nine such reports from 2020 to 2025. For each we compared the lowest price that month with the close just before the month began.