Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Aug 2026

Will Ofcom publish a further Online Safety Act age-assurance penalty on or before 20 November 2026?

BinaryResolves 20 Nov 2026
Hunch69%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 20 Nov 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the same Ofcom enforcement pages. YES if any age-assurance penalty decision is published on or before 23:59 GMT on 20 November 2026. Penalties under other duties or other statutes do not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 6
Five of the last six published age-assurance penalties carried an extra fine for not answering Ofcom's information requests, and six is also the full record since the duties took effect in July 2025. That is a finding about the kind of operator penalised so far, all of them small, offshore or anonymous, rather than a prediction about a company with a UK legal team on retainer.

Ofcom has published six age-check fines since the rules began. We looked at all of them, from 25 July 2025, when the duties took effect, to 20 August 2026, one for each company fined. For each we asked the question the first market asks: did Ofcom add a separate fine because the company did not answer its legal requests for information? Fines under other rules, and open cases with no decision yet, are left out.