Hunch. Ofgem wrote on 16 Oct that the issue is urgent because the charge must be in place before any price fall to work.
The switch-on market resolves on Ofgem's consultation and decision pages: YES if by the end of 31 December 2026 Ofgem publishes a decision to activate the market stabilisation charge, even with a changed trigger, share or notice period, and NO if it decides not to, puts it off to a later decision or decides nothing. BBC News and The Guardian settle it if Ofgem's pages cannot be read.
We looked for cases where Ofgem asked for views on its own plan for this charge or for a related ban on deals offered only to new customers, and named when it would decide. We found six such decisions from 2021 to 2026. In five, Ofgem did what it had proposed. In four, it decided by the date it had named, and both late ones came in 2022, during the energy crisis.