Hunch. Ofgem says the risk to suppliers peaks in mid-November and expects to decide about two weeks after the 29 Oct close, though it will not promise a date.
The timing market resolves YES if by the end of 20 November 2026 Ofgem publishes its decision on the charge, whether it switches it on or not, and NO if no decision is out by then. Ofgem's decision page is the source, with BBC News and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where Ofgem asked for views on its own plan for this charge or for a related ban on deals offered only to new customers, and named when it would decide. We found six such decisions from 2021 to 2026. In five, Ofgem did what it had proposed. In four, it decided by the date it had named, and both late ones came in 2022, during the energy crisis.