History. In six of seven local truces for aid since 2012, aid got in or people got out within a week of the named day. Once, in Homs in 2012, nothing moved.
Hunch. Ukraine's human rights commissioner says the roads into Oleshky must be cleared of mines before any food can go in.
The aid market resolves on White House statements and on what Ukrainian and Russian officials say, confirmed by BBC News, The Guardian or Al Jazeera: YES if by the end of 5 November 2026, Kyiv time, an aid convoy has entered Oleshky or an organised group of people has left it under the truce. It is NO if neither happens, including if the truce is cancelled or put off, and two of those three news sites settle it if the White House says nothing.
We looked for cases where two sides at war agreed to stop fighting in one town or on one road for a short time, so that aid could get in or people could get out, and named the day it would start. We found eight such truces since 2012, in Syria, Gaza and Ukraine. Two of them, in Sumy and Mariupol in March 2022, came from the same round of talks, so they count once.