The aid convoy entered Oleshky and the first evacuees left on Friday 30 October 2026, a day after the 29 October deadline, as The Guardian and Al Jazeera report; the White House page says nothing on the timing.
History. In five of seven local truces for aid since 2012, aid got in or people got out on the day named. Once it came a day late, and once, in Homs in 2012, nothing moved.
Hunch. Russia and Ukraine named the same hour, 01:00 GMT on 27 October, for their troops to stop firing around Oleshky.
Resolves YES if by the end of 29 October 2026, Kyiv time, an aid convoy has entered Oleshky or a first organised group of people has left it under the truce, on the same sources as the first market. It is NO if the first aid or the first exit comes later or not at all.
We looked for cases where two sides at war agreed to stop fighting in one town or on one road for a short time, so that aid could get in or people could get out, and named the day it would start. We found eight such truces since 2012, in Syria, Gaza and Ukraine. Two of them, in Sumy and Mariupol in March 2022, came from the same round of talks, so they count once.