History. 0 of 8: of the eight former leaders still free 43 days after the first arrest of their allies, as Orbán is now, none was detained by day 94. The two early arrests came on day 0 and day 12.
Hunch. Since 28 September investigators have taken three of Viktor Orbán's former ministers into custody, and on 9 November his brother.
The 31 December market resolves on official statements of the Hungarian police, the National Bureau of Investigation or the anti-corruption office: YES if by 11:59 PM Eastern time on 31 December 2026 law enforcement anywhere takes Viktor Orbán into custody, even for a few hours, including being confined at home by order, an electronic tag or giving himself up on a warrant, and NO if a warrant is not carried out or he is only questioned or charged without being detained. The Guardian and Telex confirm it, Al Jazeera and RFE/RL are the backups, and two of these reports decide if the official pages cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where a new government took power through an election or a vote in parliament, and then police or a court detained someone close to the former leader: a minister, deputy minister, head of a state office, close adviser or relative. We found ten such changes of power, from Taiwan in 2008 to Poland in 2024, and one of them was in Hungary in 2011. (Index; The Guardian; The Guardian; The Guardian)