History. 2 of 8: of the eight former leaders still free on day 43, two were detained by day 275, on day 226 (Ukraine) and day 273 (Pakistan). Every leader who stayed free was followed for at least 415 days.
Hunch. On 29 October a former senior prosecutor's lawyer said prosecutors had acted on Viktor Orbán's personal order in one matter, and that he would ask the anti-corruption office to take it over.
The 30 June market resolves the same way on the same official pages: YES if by 11:59 PM Eastern time on 30 June 2027 law enforcement anywhere takes Viktor Orbán into custody in any of those forms, and NO otherwise. The Guardian and Telex confirm it, Al Jazeera and RFE/RL are the backups, and two of these reports decide if the official pages cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where a new government took power through an election or a vote in parliament, and then police or a court detained someone close to the former leader: a minister, deputy minister, head of a state office, close adviser or relative. We found ten such changes of power, from Taiwan in 2008 to Poland in 2024, and one of them was in Hungary in 2011. (Index; The Guardian; The Guardian; The Guardian)