Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market26 Sep 2026

Will Oura's first trade on Nasdaq be above its sale price?

BinaryResolves 16 Oct 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch80%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

OURA had not started trading on Nasdaq by 16 October 2026, because Oura postponed its IPO on 29 September 2026; Nasdaq's historical data returns no trading record for OURA, and BBC News and the Guardian report the postponement.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 5. Cerebras, Klarna, Figma and Arm opened above the sale price. Uber opened below.

Hunch. The same jittery market Reuters described on 21 September is the condition in which Uber, the one case that opened below its sale price, came to market in 2019.

How this resolves

The first-trade market resolves on Nasdaq's record of OURA's first trading day: YES if the opening price is above the sale price in the final prospectus. An opening at or below the sale price resolves NO, and so do shares that have not started trading by 16 October 2026; Reuters and the Guardian reports of the debut are the backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 5
In 3 of 5 cases since 2019 the price was set above the first range. None priced below it.

We looked for cases where a US company raising more than $1bn in its first share sale set a price range, and a news report said before pricing that orders were bigger than the shares on offer. We found five since 2019. None priced below the range. Three priced above it, and in those three the orders were reported at 20 times the shares or more. Oura has not said how big its orders are.