Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market01 Nov 2026

Will Greater Anglia trains reach Liverpool Street on 4 January?

BinaryResolves 5 Jan 2027
Hunch64%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 5 Jan 2027
Why these numbers

History. No count from the five closures: at Forest Gate the work is new track and points without new equipment to test, so the closures with new equipment are not its own. The question comes from the plan of GBR Anglia and Network Rail to reopen the line on the morning of 4 January.

Hunch. Network Rail said on 14 October that trains would run through Forest Gate again from the early hours of 4 January, and this is a track and points job without new equipment to test.

How this resolves

The Liverpool Street market resolves YES if from the start of service on Monday 4 January 2027 Greater Anglia trains run through Forest Gate into and out of London Liverpool Street to the planned timetable, as shown by Network Rail Anglia or GBR Anglia. A delay of hours caused by the works that morning is NO, and BBC News and the Guardian are the backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 5
Three of five times Network Rail reopened a big London station in full on the morning it had named after holiday works with new equipment. Once it was a few hours late, and once a full day late.

We looked for cases where Network Rail closed a main London station or Birmingham New Street for holiday works that put in new equipment, and named a reopening day that was the first working day after the holiday. We found five such closures since 2007, all in London. Three reopened in full on the morning Network Rail had named.