Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Oct 2026

Will the Supreme Court keep the Palestine Action ban in place?

BinaryResolves 11 Mar 2027
History57%
Hunch63%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 11 Mar 2027
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 7: the 1984, 2001, 2007 and 2015 rulings kept the minister's decision; the 2004 ruling and both 2010 rulings struck it down.

Hunch. In June all five Court of Appeal judges found the ban lawful and said ministers need a wide margin on national security.

How this resolves

The ban market resolves on the ruling, published on the Supreme Court's page for this appeal and by the National Archives: YES if the court rejects Huda Ammori's appeal and the ban stays lawful, and NO if it allows the appeal fully or in its main part. With no ruling by the end of 11 March 2027 the market is void, and BBC News and The Guardian are the backups.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
Four of six times since 1984, Britain's top court ruled more than 47 days after the hearing began, and twice it ruled sooner. One more ruling, in 2001, has no exact hearing date.

We looked for cases where the UK’s top court reviewed a security decision by a minister against a named group or person, after a first court found it unlawful and the Court of Appeal disagreed. We found seven such appeals since 1984. None was about banning a group.