Tadej Pogacar won the 2026 Tour de France in Paris on 26 July, finishing 6:26 ahead of Remco Evenepoel for a record-equalling fifth title.
The Tour market resolves YES if the final general classification published on letour.fr after stage 21 in Paris on 26 July 2026 lists Pogacar first; abandonment or disqualification before Paris resolves NO.
Half of the last ten first-rest-day leaders won the Tour. Leading at that point sounds decisive, and in recent years it has been closer to a coin toss. Those who lost the lead include Pogacar himself. Below are six of those Tours. The rest of the record adds Chris Froome's wins in 2016 and 2017 and Pogacar's win in 2021.