Is Pogacar's winning margin over second place in Paris more than five minutes?
BinaryResolves 26 Jul 2026
Hunch42%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Pogacar finished 6min 26sec clear of Remco Evenepoel in the final general classification in Paris on 26 July.
Resolved 26 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The margin market uses the official time gap between first and second in that same final general classification on letour.fr, read at 23:59 CEST on 26 July 2026.
The pattern behind it
5 of 10
Five of the last ten Tours were won by the rider wearing yellow at the first rest day. The six editions set out above carry two of those conversions; the full record adds Froome in 2016 and 2017 and Pogacar in 2021, and narrowing the population to genuine GC contenders rather than breakaway leaders lifts it to five of seven.
Half of the last ten first-rest-day leaders won the Tour. Leading at that point sounds decisive, and in recent years it has been closer to a coin toss. Those who lost the lead include Pogacar himself. Below are six of those Tours. The rest of the record adds Chris Froome's wins in 2016 and 2017 and Pogacar's win in 2021.
Some cookies are essential for Hunch to work properly. Others are optional—you decide whether to allow them. We don’t sell your personal data. Learn more and change your choices at any time in Cookie settings.