History. In six of nine decisions since 2025 on laws he had promised not to sign, Karol Nawrocki vetoed the law or sent it to the Constitutional Tribunal. Three times he signed.
Hunch. As a candidate in January 2025, Nawrocki said he would not sign even a bill that only brought back the rule on severe defects.
The abortion bills market resolves on the Sejm's public record of the two bills (processes 611 and 223): YES if by the end of 29 December 2026 both show a presidential veto or a referral to the Constitutional Tribunal before signing, and NO if the president signs either one. The market is void if a bill does not reach the president by the end of 8 December or the record shows no decision on one of them by 29 December, and Politico Europe and The Guardian settle it if the record cannot be read.
We looked for cases where a Polish president said before the final Sejm vote that he would not sign a law, or a law on its subject, and it then reached him. We found ten such laws, all under Karol Nawrocki since 2025. Two were on the same fuel tax, so he made nine decisions. Six times he did not sign.