History. In two of nine decisions since 2025 on laws he had promised not to sign, Karol Nawrocki sent the law to the Constitutional Tribunal first. Both were tax laws.
Hunch. On 20 October Nawrocki's chief of staff said the Constitutional Tribunal had been clear on protecting life, even before Law and Justice took power.
Resolves YES if by the end of 29 December 2026 the Sejm's record shows the president sent at least one of the two abortion bills to the Constitutional Tribunal before signing it, and NO if both bills reached him by 8 December and he signed or vetoed both. A referral after signing does not count, the market is void if there is no referral and a bill did not reach him by 8 December or has no decision by 29 December, and Politico Europe and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where a Polish president said before the final Sejm vote that he would not sign a law, or a law on its subject, and it then reached him. We found ten such laws, all under Karol Nawrocki since 2025. Two were on the same fuel tax, so he made nine decisions. Six times he did not sign.