Hunch. On 31 October the court's own website was run by the judge who suspended Święczkowski, so the court route that brought a chief back in 2006 is shut, while the month-long suspension can still lapse.
The reinstatement market resolves YES if by 23:59 US Eastern time on 31 December 2026 Bogdan Święczkowski officially gets back his powers as president of the Constitutional Tribunal and is no longer suspended, whether the suspension is lifted, runs out without being extended, or is set aside by a court or a law; a permanent removal is NO. It settles on the Tribunal's official announcements confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian, and if the Tribunal's website and its social media say different things, or the site does not open, those two papers decide together.
We looked for cases where a president, government, parliament or prosecutor removed or suspended the head of a top court or prosecution service, and that head refused to accept it. We found eight such removals since 2006, in Poland, Ukraine, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. Courts and prosecution services each make up four.