Hunch. On 30 October the justice minister said the government had nothing to do with the suspension, so the judge could drop it without a defeat for Tusk.
The cancellation market resolves YES if by 23:59 US Eastern time on 31 December 2026 Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, or a judge acting for her as head of the Tribunal, cancels the suspension by a separate act, and NO if the suspension stays, simply runs out, or is ended by a court, a law or anyone else. It settles on Tribunal announcements confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian.
We looked for cases where a president, government, parliament or prosecutor removed or suspended the head of a top court or prosecution service, and that head refused to accept it. We found eight such removals since 2006, in Poland, Ukraine, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. Courts and prosecution services each make up four.