Does the Met arrest or interview anyone under caution over Reform by 9 Oct?
BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
History25%
Hunch25%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: NO
No arrest or interview under caution in the Reform UK funding inquiry was reported by 9 October 2026: the Metropolitan Police newsroom lists nothing on it from 8 to 10 October, BBC News and The Guardian on 7 October said the police investigation was still running, and The Guardian's 9 October report on Nigel Farage mentions no arrest.
Resolved 9 Oct 2026
How this resolves
The cautioned-interview market resolves on a Metropolitan police statement, or on matching reports in two of the Guardian, BBC News and the Times, that an arrest or an interview under caution has taken place in the Reform UK funding investigation between 10 September and 23:59 on 9 October 2026. The interviews of George and Fiona Cottrell reported in July 2026 fall outside the window and do not count, and a voluntary interview conducted without caution does not count.
The pattern behind it
2 of 8
Two of the last eight UK criminal inquiries into party or campaign funding produced an arrest or an interview under caution within 30 days of being confirmed: cash-for-honours in 2006, where Des Smith was arrested on day 23, and the Met's Reform inquiry in July 2026, where the Cottrell interviews surfaced the day after the force confirmed the case. That is the whole record found for 2006 to 2026, so the base rate is 2 of 8 on the full count as well. The 30-day window is a test of visible movement, not of outcome: Operation Branchform took 21 months to its first arrest, the Abrahams file took seven months to reach the CPS, Peter Hain waited ten, and between 2011 and 2021 the Electoral Commission referred eight cases to the Met without a single charge (BBC News, 5 Sep 2026). Of the eight cases here, none had produced a charge within a year.
We looked for UK criminal inquiries into the money behind a party or campaign since 2006, confirmed in public by a police force or the National Crime Agency on a known day. We found eight. In two of them, someone was arrested or interviewed under caution within 30 days.
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